Thinking in Bets (Annie Duke)

£4.00

Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke explores how decision-making under uncertainty can be improved by thinking probabilistically rather than judging outcomes alone. Duke argues that good decisions are rarely guaranteed to succeed and that separating the quality of a choice from its result is crucial. By embracing uncertainty, assessing risks, and learning from both successes and failures, readers can make better, more rational choices in business, life, and personal goals.

Thinking in Bets by Annie Duke explores how decision-making under uncertainty can be improved by thinking probabilistically rather than judging outcomes alone. Duke argues that good decisions are rarely guaranteed to succeed and that separating the quality of a choice from its result is crucial. By embracing uncertainty, assessing risks, and learning from both successes and failures, readers can make better, more rational choices in business, life, and personal goals.

  • From the GLAS Method perspective, Thinking in Bets strengthens Emotions / Awareness, Growth / Learning, and Purpose / Meaning by reframing how individuals relate to uncertainty and internal judgment. GLAS emphasises the importance of self-awareness in preventing reactive drift — where decisions driven by ego, fear, or defensiveness lead to misalignment. Duke’s probabilistic approach encourages individuals to notice cognitive biases and emotional impulses that distort clarity, turning awareness into a decision-making compass rather than a blind spot.

    The book’s emphasis on feedback loops and learning from outcomes — independent of ego — aligns closely with Growth / Learning, because it promotes reflection, hypothesis testing, and iterative improvement. Rather than conflating outcome with decision quality, Duke encourages learners to ask, What would I do differently next time? — a core GLAS practice that transforms experience into aligned adaptation. This kind of disciplined reflection strengthens resilience and reduces reactive behaviour that drains energy and clouds purpose.

    Finally, Thinking in Bets supports Purpose / Meaning and Environment / Context by promoting decision cultures where uncertainty is acknowledged, diverse perspectives are valued, and integrity in thinking is rewarded over defensiveness. This probabilistic mindset fosters environments where psychological safety flourishes — people can speak honestly, revise positions without stigma, and align actions with collective goals rather than short-term certainty. Such contexts preserve energy, deepen connection, and help individuals anchor decisions in shared purpose rather than isolated ego.